The January 6 connecting dots do not offer guarantees of political impact: The Note

The TAKE with Rick Klein

Connecting the dots does not necessarily mark a straight line leading to political impact.

It’s a massive consequences week for the Jan. 6 House committee, whose final series of public hearings are expected to shed more light on former President Donald Trump’s actions, as well as Trump’s connections and his team with extremist groups gathered in Washington, DC

But the blockbuster revelations – even augmented by testimony from former White House attorney Pat Cipollone, and possibly testimony from Steve Bannon – have done almost nothing to change immediate political calculations.

In an important part of the primaries ahead, essentially few Republicans beyond Rep. Liz Cheney, R-Wyo. – who vice chair of the committee Jan. 6- has staked their futures on the proposal that voters are willing to reject Trump and what he stands for.

The one who tried that path, Rep. Tom Rice, RS.C., lost his primary last month. Another who chose not to risk re -election in that environment, Rep. Adam Kinzinger, R-Ill., Will almost certainly admit that the time horizon of the current election cycle is not enough to see a real impact from showing how wrong Trump’s actions are. .

“On the edges, yes, it’s penetrating. And I think the most important thing is, again, what does history say in five or 10 years?” Kinzinger told ABC’s “This Week with George Stephanopoulos.”

Kinzinger – who, like Cheney, served on the committee on Jan. 6 – made the bold prediction: “I will do almost everything I can to ensure that, in nearly 10 years, there will be no more Trump supporters that exist anywhere in the country. “

Similar statements from anti-Trump Republicans, using different timelines, have been proven incorrect. It may be more likely that, within an election cycle or two, there will be no Republican left in Congress who does not declare allegiance to Trump.

The RUNDOWN with Averi Harper

A better-than-expected jobs report last week along with a gradual decline in gas prices indicates positive economic growth for the Biden administration-but fears of a recession remain.

Despite continued labor market strength, inflation is still at a 40-year high and the Federal Reserve may continue to raise interest rates in an effort to cool the economy (and rising costs), which caused concerns to a painful slowdown.

Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo, like other members of Joe Biden’s team, is trying to calm those concerns.

“I think it’s normal to think that as we continue to come out of the pandemic, we’re going to move to more stable growth but more stable growth. So I think at some point, you know, we’ll see less. Rapid growth. in the economy, but I see no reason to think we’re going to have a serious recession, ”Raimondo said Sunday to“ This Week ”anchor George Stephanopoulos.

Concerns about high prices – especially at the pump – continue to be a priority for the White House. Although the price of gas has fallen in the past month, the national average is at an expensive $ 4.72, according to AAA. Gas will be the topic of discussion on President Biden’s trip to Saudi Arabia this week.

“Its energy resources are crucial for mitigating the impact on Russia’s war’s global supplies to Ukraine,” Biden wrote in a Washington Post column on Sunday.

Relief for high prices across the board will be an important factor for Democrats heading into high-stakes midterm elections in November, as a host of polls showed that the economy and inflation are still in mind while Americans are approaching the vote.

The TIP with Alisa Wiersema

The contours of the potential political battles of 2024 are being shaped four months before the midterms. For months, high-profile Republicans roamed the presidential perennial battlegrounds and, recently, a top Democratic governor appeared closer to raising his national profile as President Biden reiterated his plan to run. for the second term.

Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan is the latest Republican scheduled to make a political pilgrimage to New Hampshire, where the nation’s first presidential primaries will be held. On his upcoming trip, the blue-state conservative plans to highlight his inflation relief plan.

“I hope Donald Trump doesn’t run and won’t be nominated if he runs,” Hogan said Sunday on “Meet the Press.” Hogan also said he believes Trump’s influence in their party is waning and he is not diminished in the likelihood of running in 2024 if Trump runs again.

“I’m going to do the best job I can to be governor until next January, and I don’t know what will happen in the future. Frustrated with the far left and far right,” he said.

Hogan’s comments were followed by California Gov. Gavin Newsom swiping Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, in a possible preview of what to expect on the 2024 campaign trail in case the pair both decide to run. Newsom recently ran an ad in DeSantis ’home state in which the California governor told Floridians that“ freedom is under attack in your state ”while listing conservative political legislation he deemed problematic. Newsom’s ad aired over the weekend of the Fourth of July and invited frustrated Floridians to move to California, “where we still believe in freedom.”

DeSantis said at a recent press conference in response: “I was born and raised in this state, and until recent years I rarely saw a California license plate in the state of Florida. You now see a lot of them. I can tell you, if you go to California, you won’t see too many Florida plaques. “

NUMBER OF THE DAY, powered by FiveThirtyEight

33. That’s the share of individuals charged in connection with the Jan. 6 attack that had previously been linked to extremist groups, according to analysis from Mike Jensen of the University of Maryland’s National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses. on Terrorism. And as Kaleigh Rogers and Holly Fuong wrote of FiveThirtyEight, more than 74% of these individuals are connected to extremist groups like Oath Keepers, Proud Boys and QAnon. Read more from Kaleigh and Holly on how these different groups of extremists overlapped in the Capitol on January 6th.

THE PLAYLIST

ABC News’ “Start Here” podcast. “Start Here” begins Monday morning with a look at Biden’s executive actions for abortion in response to the Supreme Court’s ruling on Roe v. Wade and frustration within the Democratic Party. Anne Flaherty of ABC led us. Then, ABC’s Bob Woodruff reported from Japan after the assassination of former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. And, tech journalist Chris Stokel-Walker explained how Elon Musk’s bid for Twitter turned out to be a very public breakdown. http://apple.co/2HPocUL

WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW NOW

• The president will host an event at the White House at 11 am ET to commemorate the passage of the bipartisan gun reform law, which he signed on June 25th.
• President and Vice President Kamala Harris received a briefing from NASA officials at 5 pm ET who previewed images from the Webb Space Telescope.
• White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre conducts a press briefing at 3:45 pm ET.

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The Note is an ABC News daily feature that highlights the day’s top political stories. Please come back on Tuesday for the latest.