GoLocalProv | The Abortion Issue Binds a Powerful Political Punch

Tuesday, July 12, 2022

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State House protest PHOTO: GoLocal

An in -depth national survey conducted after the U.S. Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade argues that the political impact of the decision is likely to provide near-term help to Democrats across the country. enabling some limitation of mid-term losses. In the long run, the results of this poll underscore the chances for Democratic victories at the state legislative level, which Republicans have far surpassed in the past decade or so.

Nearly 2 to 1 (63% to 34%) Americans oppose the Supreme Court’s decision to reverse Roe, according to a survey by the Public Religion Research Institute (PRRI). Similarly, 65% of Americans say abortion should be legal in all or most cases, compared to 33% of Americans who say abortion should be illegal in most or all cases.

That said, the percentage of Americans who believe abortion should be legal in all or most cases saying they will only vote for a candidate who shares their views on abortion has doubled since 2020, up from 15% up to 34%, PRRI reported. On the other hand, the percentage of Americans who believe abortion should be illegal in all or most cases saying they will only vote for a candidate who shares their views on this issue is roughly the same as by 2020, from 29 % to 31% -within the survey error margin.


Although this huge increase in the number of people among pro-choice voters who say they will only vote for the candidates who line up with them on this issue is likely to somewhat recede as we move away from the immediate impact of the Court’s decision. , these results show that the reversal of Roe will almost certainly move some swing voters — specifically Independent and Republican women-to the Democratic column in the Fall. In other words, the political fallout from the Court’s decision in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization will not only boost turn-outs from Democratic voter bases by mid-term; it is also likely to produce a measurable effect of persuasion.

This is especially the case because between now and November the issue of abortion will continue to receive saturation-level media coverage. The effects of Roe’s expulsion will create points of controversy in at least half of our states, which have recently passed laws strictly limiting or explicitly prohibiting abortion, sometimes with no exception for rape and incest or there are so-called triggering laws in the books. abortion ban-laws are now being activated as a result of the Court’s decision.

And public opinion on the key issues surrounding abortion that will be in dispute over the next few months strongly favors the pro-choice position. Nearly 6-in-10 Americans, for example, oppose laws that “would be illegal to receive by mail FDA-approved drugs, also known as the abortion pill for a medical abortion.” Similarly, nearly 2-in-3 Americans oppose laws that make it “illegal to cross state lines to obtain an abortion in another state”. More than 3-in-4 Americans oppose laws that ‘restrict what types of birth control can be used to prevent pregnancy.

Although Republicans have a traditional political advantage over abortion, which is now largely reversed, the general political environment is still favoring the GOP this fall. The votes obtained made possible by Roe’s ouster, however, could serve as a political lifeline for Democratic candidates in the upcoming contests, allowing the party to limit defeats in the House of Representatives and give this a better opportunity to retain control of the US Senate. At the state level – where most anti -abortion activists will fight – huge opportunities are now open for Democrats to take state legislative seats.

Now, of course, it is up to individual Democratic candidates to efficiently seize these opportunities.

Rob Horowitz is a strategic and communications consultant providing general consulting, public relations, direct mail and polling services for national and state issue organizations, various nonprofits, businesses, and elected officials. officers and candidates. He is an Adjunct Professor of Political Science at the University of Rhode Island.

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